Jahangir Aziz, the Global Head of EM Economics at JPMorgan, has expressed concerns about the possibility of a prolonged recession in the United States. He believes that emerging markets (EMs) would face challenges only if the US dollar strengthens significantly. According to Aziz, the current increase in the 10-year US Treasury rate is an overshooting of its fair value. Despite global financial market turmoil triggered by a substantial rise in US yields, Aziz noted that EMs are relatively stable due to robust monetary policies. He also mentioned the potential slowdown of the Indian economy in the latter half of the current fiscal year. The surge in US yields, reaching a 16-year high of 4.95%, has created apprehension in financial markets. Investors worry that a large portion of funds might shift towards US treasuries, attracted by their risk-free returns exceeding 5%, leading to downward pressure on other financial assets.
